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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
INTERVIEW
15 January 2026
Simplification and financial stability
European banks hold the correct levels of capital, Vice-President Luis de Guindos tells Politico. Our approach is to simplify the bureaucratic burden on banks in terms of the capital stack, regulation, supervision and reporting.
Read the Vice-President’s interview
KALBA
2026 01 09
Euras kintančiame pasaulyje
Pasak vyriausiojo ekonomisto Philipo R. Lane'o, pinigų sąjunga siūlo keletą reikšmingų privalumų. Tai ir galimybė kartu reaguoti į ekonominius sukrėtimus, ir didesnis valiutos teikiamas stabilumas, ir efektyvesnė finansų infrastruktūra bei rinkos integracija.
Skaityti Philipo R. Lane'o kalbą
EKONOMIKOS BIULETENIS
2026 01 14
Neišnaudotas bendrosios rinkos potencialas
Augimas ir prekyba galėtų smarkiai paspartėti, jei reformomis būtų sumažintos struktūrinės prekybos kliūtys, pavyzdžiui, reguliavimo sistemos fragmentacija ir biurokratija. Dėl to padidėtų žmonių gerovė, Europa taptų atsparesnė ir būtų kompensuoti numatomi nuostoliai, susiję su prekybos sutrikimais.
Daugiau apie bendrosios rinkos reformą- 13 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 13 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 13 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 13 January 2026
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
- 13 January 2026
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
- 8 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 14 January 2026
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 16th edition of Spain Investors Day
- 9 January 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danish Economic Society Conference
- 19 December 2025
- Lecture by Mr Lane at Economics Winter Workshop organised by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland
- 19 December 2025
- Contribution by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to a roundtable at Aspen Institute Italia
- 18 December 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 December 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 18 December 2025
- 15 January 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kathryn Carlson, Geoffrey Smith and Johanna Treeck
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 4 December 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Takerou Minami on 26 November 2025
- 1 December 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Pablo Allendesalazar
- 11 November 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
- 6 January 2026
- Central banks often struggle to make themselves understood to the wider public. Visuals can help to change this. The ECB Blog travels across the globe to showcase the creative ways in which central banks communicate monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 23 December 2025
- Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence makes a difference. Central banks that are shielded from government control are able to pursue more credible monetary policies and are therefore better at keeping inflation at target.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 9 December 2025
- The ECB plans to prepare for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029, assuming the European co-legislators adopt the necessary regulation by 2026. Preparatory steps, including pilot exercises and initial transactions, could begin as early as mid-2027.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 28 November 2025
- Geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine have shaken Europe’s economies. Understanding the economic impact of such shocks is crucial for monetary policy. This ECB Blog post presents a news-based indicator that tracks country-level geopolitical risk.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 20 November 2025
- To bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
- 14 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The European Union (EU) Single Market has significantly enhanced economic welfare, competitiveness and resilience by facilitating the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. Its achievements notwithstanding, the Single Market still has untapped potential, as persistent structural barriers hinder deeper integration, particularly in the cross-border trade of goods and services. Using a gravity model, this paper quantifies the economic impact of these barriers. The findings reveal that barriers could be reduced by 8 percentage points for goods and 9 percentage points for services if all EU countries were to achieve the same degree of trade integration as the Netherlands, a country estimated to be one of the most integrated EU Member States. In the long term, this would lead to significant welfare, i.e. real income, gains of up to 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, compared with a baseline of no further integration. Furthermore, simulation results suggest that a modest 2% reduction in Single Market barriers could offset projected GDP losses from higher US tariffs. The study emphasises that these estimates are conservative and that deeper integration, particularly in the services sector, could unlock even greater economic benefits.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 14 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey allow the construction of a housing Sharpe ratio, which relates the return on housing investment to its risk. Over time, the housing Sharpe ratio has mostly been driven by house price growth expectations (in excess of a riskless return), with changes in house price uncertainty playing a more limited role. However, varying perceptions of price uncertainty do drive differences in the housing Sharpe ratio across household groups: lower uncertainty explains higher ratios for male, older, wealthier, employed and more financially literate households as well as renters relative to their counterparts. Households living in urban areas also have higher ratios, driven by higher house price expectations. The housing Sharpe ratio has been steadily recovering from its trough in 2023 and points to a further moderate recovery in housing investment in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
- 13 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3172Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines how fiscal policy in the euro area reacts to monetary policy, by estimating fiscal policy reaction functions for the period 1999-2019. Inclusion of the monetary policy stance in the fiscal reaction function, approximated by a shadow interest rate, is a relatively novel aspect in this type of analysis. The findings suggest that fiscal policy acts in a substitutive manner, its stance moving in the opposite direction of monetary policy, though this effect may have ceased operating during ECB’s quantitative easing. Using local projections, the substitutive effect is found to increase over time before turning broadly neutral. Analysing the fiscal response to other monetary policy relevant variables - government debt and the output gap -, outcomes suggests that budget balances react positively to government debt, supporting fiscal sustainability, and that fiscal policy acts countercyclically in recessions.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
- 13 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3171Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the impact of structural shocks on the joint distribution of future real GDP growth and inflation in the euro area. We model the conditional mean of these variables, along with selected financial indicators, using a VAR and perform quantile regressions on the VAR residuals to estimate their time-varying variance as a function of macroeconomic and financial variables. Through impulse response analysis, we find that demand and financial shocks reduce expected GDP growth and increase its conditional variance, leading to negatively skewed future growth distributions. By enabling this mean-volatility interaction, demand and financial shocks drive significant time variation in downside risk to euro area GDP growth, while supply shocks result in broadly symmetric movements. For inflation, supply shocks drive instead a positive mean-volatility co-movement, where higher inflation is associated with increased uncertainty, causing time variation in upside risk.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- 13 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box presents the ECB’s new global trade tracker, which combines real-time satellite data on vessel movements with traditional high-frequency financial and survey data. The satellite component uses the automatic identification system, which records the positions of ships and cargo activity in near real time, thereby providing detailed information on trade flows by country and by commodity. Augmenting the tracker with satellite-based indicators enhances markedly its ability to capture shifts in global trade dynamics. Compared with a previous version that relied mainly on financial indicators, the satellite-data-enhanced tracker improves forecast accuracy, with gains being particularly pronounced during episodes of rapid disruption to international trade.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 12 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3170Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops a model of AT1 CoCos and corporate securities analysing the role of CoCos as replacements of Equity or of Debt. Our results show that, in terms of value creation, CoCos perform better when they replace vanilla corporate debt rather than when they replace common Equity. Moreover, we show as well that although debt increases the probability of bankruptcy, given the coupon suspension possibility, with CoCos the probability of financial distress is higher. Our paper also highlights the considerable complexity of this instrument, something at odds with its role as a potential solution to a financial crisis in part triggered by less complex securities.
- JEL Code
- K22 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Business and Securities Law
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
- 12 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3169Details
- Abstract
- The financial crisis of 2007-2008 highlighted the risks that liquidity spirals pose to financial stability. We introduce a novel method for studying liquidity spirals and use this method to identify spirals before stock prices plummet and funding markets lock up. We show that liquidity spirals may be underestimated or completely overlooked when interactions between different types of contagion channels or institutions are ignored. We also find that financial stability is greatly affected by how institutions choose to respond to liquidity shocks, with some strategies yielding a “robust-yet-fragile" system. To demonstrate the method, we apply it to a highly granular data set on the South African banking sector and investment fund sector. We find that the risk of a liquidity spiral emerging increases when the pool of institutions' most liquid assets is reduced, while a liquidity injection by the central bank can dampen the spiral. We further show that a liquidity spiral may be due to the banking and fund sectors' collective dynamics, but can also be driven by an individual sector under some market conditions. The approach developed here canbe used to formulate interventions that specifically target the sector(s) causing the liquidity spiral.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Understanding food price dynamics is important both for monitoring overall inflation and for assessing consumers’ inflation expectations. Food inflation was 2.4% in November 2025, having declined from its March 2023 peak of 15.5%, but it remains above its pre-pandemic average. Key contributors to consumer food inflation include price rises of specific items, such as coffee, cocoa, meat and fruit. Commodity price increases have played a role – particularly coffee and cocoa commodities, reflecting extreme weather – as have factors such as wage growth in food-related sectors. While selling price expectations among food manufacturers and retailers indicate some near-term easing, the extent of this moderation remains uncertain owing to some persistent cost pressures in food retail.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q11 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis, Prices
- 7 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3168Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the relevance of banks’ exposure to climate transition risk in the interbank lending market. Using transaction-level data on repo agreements, we first establish that banks with higher exposure to transition risk face significantly higher borrowing costs. This premium is a combination of a risk premium, compensating lenders for increased credit risk, and an inconvenience premium, reflecting the sustainability preferences of key dealer banks. We also find that the transition risk premium intensifies during periods of financial stress, indicating that climate-induced risks amplify existing vulnerabilities in financial markets. Furthermore, the rate segmentation caused by transition risk premium has implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Transition risk is an important factor in financial stability and policy design.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 7 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3167Details
- Abstract
- We use a novel data set containing all corporate loans throughout the Eurozone to document a series of novel stylized facts on the relationship between collateral and the probability of default. First, we show that the pervasive empirical finding that riskier borrowers pledge collateral is driven by economists’ informational disadvantage relative to banks. Accounting for time-varying bank- and firm-specific risk factors produces negative correlations consistent with theory. Second, the relationship between pledging collateral and the probability of default is non-linear. Increasing the ex-ante collateral-to-loan ratio initially lowers the default likelihood but increases it as loans become overcollateralized. Third, this is driven by the riskiness of collateral. We estimate that an increase in the ex-ante collateral-to-loan ratio correlates with greater variance in the underlying collateral’s market value after loan origination. We develop a model featuring risk-neutral agents and risky collateral that provides intuition for these empirical patterns. Pledging risky collateral lowers lenders’ expected returns in case of default, leading them to demand more collateral to originate a loan but this diminishes a borrower’s return when a project is successful leading to less effort and a higher probability of default.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 6 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3166Details
- Abstract
- We propose a robust semi-parametric framework for persistent time-varying extreme tail behavior, including extreme Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The framework builds on Extreme Value Theory and uses a conditional version of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for peaks-over-threshold (POT) dynamics. Unlike earlier approaches, our model (i) has unit root-like, i.e., integrated autoregressive dynamics for the GPD tail shape, and (ii) re-scales POTs by their thresholds to obtain a more parsimonious model with only one time-varying parameter to describe the entire tail. We establish parameter regions for stationarity, ergodicity, and invertibility for the integrated time-varying parameter model and its filter, and formulate conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. Using two cryptocurrency exchange rates, we illustrate how the simple single-parameter model is competitive in capturing the dynamics of VaR and ES, particularly in the extreme tail.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 1 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 22 December 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 22 December 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 138Details
- Abstract
- Based on a series of novel experiments fielded within the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, we provide evidence on the attitudes of euro area consumers towards a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC). We document substantial socio‑demographic heterogeneity in consumers’ awareness and willingness to adopt a CBDC. According to survey responses, a sizeable share of around 45% of households would be interested in potentially adopting this new asset. In a scenario where a CBDC is introduced in the euro area, consumers would allocate on average a moderate fraction of a positive wealth shock to such a new asset. Holding limits in the range of €3,000 to €10,000 would in normal times not result in significant disintermediation in the banking system. According to the survey responses, effective communication of the CBDC’s key features could increase the propensity of its adoption by consumers, but this would tend to be short-lived.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G51 : Financial Economics
- 19 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 29Details
- Abstract
- We develop a framework underscoring the importance of incorporating natural capital into growth models and policy discussions, recognizing its role as a productive input and as a sourceof enjoyment. Both firms and the government face the trade-off between exploitation and conservation and can (but do not have to) engage in costly conservation. Firms optimally conserve natural capital to support future production but underinvest compared to the social optimum. Public conservation complements private action, shifting focus from current consumption to future growth. Unique region-level data on the biodiversity of the forest in 582 regions across 44 countries confirm the main empirical predictions of the model.
- JEL Code
- N5 : Economic History→Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
Palūkanų normos
| Indėlių galimybė | 2,00 % |
| Pagrindinės refinansavimo operacijos (fiksuotosios palūkanų normos) | 2,15 % |
| Ribinio skolinimosi galimybė | 2,40 % |
Infliacijos lygis
Daugiau apie infliacijąValiutų kursai
| USD | US dollar | 1.1651 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 184.82 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86680 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9333 |
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