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SPEECH
7 May 2026
The quiet erosion of central bank independence
Fiscal and financial dominance could erode central bank independence in the future, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Preserving independence requires prudent fiscal and regulatory policies, as well as central banks remaining firmly within their mandates.
Read Isabel Schnabel's speech
EVENT
6 maj 2026
Träffa ECB:s medarbetare på Europadagen
Vi kommer att vara i Europeiska rådet i Bryssel och på Römersbergstorget i Frankfurt lördagen den 9 maj 2026 för att fira Europadagen och Europeiska unionens grundande. Kom och träffa oss där så berättar vi hur vi arbetar för alla i Europa.
Event på Europadagen
CAREERS
8 May 2026
Empowering your academic goals
We’re offering grants of €10,000 and expert mentoring to 15 female students. Are you enrolled, or about to enrol, on a master’s degree course in economics, statistics, engineering or computing? Check out the ECB Scholarship for Women and get your application in.
Apply by 11 May- 7 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE IN THE EURO AREA
- 6 May 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 6 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 5 May 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 5 May 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 4 May 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 8 May 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Banco de España LatAm Economic Forum in Roda de Bará, Spain
- 7 May 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Fifth Annual Charles Goodhart Lecture
- 7 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration
- 6 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2026 Sustainable Development FestivalAnnexes
- 6 May 2026
- 5 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Climate, Nature and Monetary Policy Conference jointly organised by the ECB, the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
- 3 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Amanda Mars on 30 April 2026
- 22 April 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Eva Smal on 15 April 2026
- 23 March 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Segovia on 20 March 2026
- 8 March 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Benedetta Poletti on 12 February 2026
- 3 March 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 26 February 2026
- 6 May 2026
- Digitalisation is reshaping how banks pass on monetary policy. Compared with their branch‑based peers, digital banks are faster at adjusting deposit pricing for policy changes, but slower at updating their loan pricing.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 21 April 2026
- Artificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 13 April 2026
- During the latest tightening episode, interest rate hikes were especially effective. This ECB Blog finds a strong policy transmission to inflation during 2022 and 2023, a forceful response to supply-driven shocks and a low “sacrifice ratio”.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 9 April 2026
- Many Bulgarians feared large price increases when the euro replaced the lev. However, preliminary evidence shows that the changeover in Bulgaria has so far had a limited impact on consumer prices and on perceptions of inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
Related - 7 April 2026
- Europe’s energy dependence increasingly complicates the task of maintaining price stability. Meeting the continent’s clean‑energy targets would weaken the link between volatile global markets and domestic prices. Crucially, the tools to make this transition are already within reach.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q40 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 8 May 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 7 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3227Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market.
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 7 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3226Details
- Abstract
- Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the “old” EU Member States (EU15) and the “new” Member States (NMS12). The model introduces fully endogenous temporary migration and combines it with search-and-matching frictions in labour markets. Workers migrate temporarily in response to differences in labour market conditions and wages, allowing productivity shocks to affect local labour supply. The results show that productivity shocks in the host economy attract temporary migrants and increase labour supply. This migration response amplifies output fluctuations while leaving inflation dynamics largely unaffected. Migration also smooths wage responses but increases the volatility of employment. At the same time, temporary migration dampens the macroeconomic effects of productivity shocks in the sending economy by redistributing labour across regions. These findings highlight the role of labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism within an integrated economic area and suggest that cross-border migration can significantly shape business cycle dynamics in Europe.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
F22 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Migration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box provides empirical evidence regarding a set of interrelated structural blockages that hinder European capital markets from supporting innovation and long-term growth. EU households save a significant share of their income yet disproportionately allocate assets to bank deposits or foreign equities, particularly in the United States, thus limiting domestic investment in high-tech sectors. Fragmentation in EU capital markets, driven by regulatory, tax and infrastructure disparities, exacerbates these issues. The efficient implementation of the policy measures proposed as part of the SIU strategy should advance the development and integration of capital markets.
- JEL Code
- E21, E22, F36, G11, G51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- The Eurosystem is promoting the safe and integrated development of a European digital asset ecosystem, leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT) to enhance efficiency, transparency and integration in financial markets. Recent initiatives have confirmed the potential of DLT across various phases of the financial transactions lifecycle, reflecting growing interest and engagement from market participants. This box highlights the Eurosystem’s efforts to scale up innovation. These include its single work programme to develop a European digital asset ecosystem and its strategy to align its collateral framework by accepting DLT-based assets as eligible collateral for Eurosystem credit operations.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- The box looks at VC fund investors, showing that the limited involvement of institutional investors with large financing firepower is one factor that constrains VC funds when financing scale‑ups in Europe. The analysis also shows that the European Investment Fund (EIF) plays a key role, which could be leveraged to crowd-in private investors. Finally, the VC fund landscape is mapped against the existing regulatory framework to inform the upcoming review of the framework. This will make it possible to better address the needs of EU VC fund managers and, in turn, potentially expand the availability of VC investment opportunities for investors. Overall, the investor landscape for VC funds affects the broader innovation financing ecosystem in Europe, which would benefit from policies addressing fragmentation within the Single Market.
- JEL Code
- O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- The box explores how taxation policies can affect savers’ investment decisions, given the objective of the savings and investments union (SIU) to increase retail participation in capital markets. The first part looks into tax processes in the case of cross-border investment, which remain a key barrier preventing the integration of capital markets across the EU. The second part looks into savings and investment accounts, which are one way to promote the development of capital markets and increase corresponding retail participation. However, there are several factors that can foster the success of dedicated savings and investment accounts, with taxation policies being only one of them.
- JEL Code
- O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
G51 : Financial Economics
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- Harmonising corporate tax rules across the EU is challenging. Instead of harmonisation across all Member States being the goal, each country could be given the option of joining a harmonised tax area within the EU. Full harmonisation across all Member States could be achieved at a later stage. This idea is illustrated by a stylised example involving firms that wish to diversify investments across different countries while not wanting to be exposed to multiple tax systems.
- JEL Code
- H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- Capital market supervision remains structurally fragmented in Europe, with 52 national authorities operating under 16 different institutional set-ups and limited, uneven EU-level oversight. This fragmentation leads to divergent supervisory practices and outcomes, despite common EU legislation. Compared with more centralised models such as in the United States, the EU framework is heavily stratified. The box argues that, although convergence of supervisory practices helps, a more integrated supervisory framework, including an enhanced role for ESMA, is a key necessary condition for consistent implementation and enforcement of EU rules, alignment of oversight with the cross-border nature of capital market risks, simplification and cross-border integration.
- JEL Code
- E61, F36, G18, G20, G23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE IN THE EURO AREARelated
- 6 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3225Details
- Abstract
- Does artificial intelligence (AI) pose a threat to financial stability? We study AI investor behavior, specifically Q-learning and large language model (LLM) investors, in a mutual fund redemption problem with economic and strategic uncertainty. Different AI architectures generate systematically different outcomes. Q-learning investors coordinate well but under default risk exhibit excessive redemption that amplifies fragility. LLM investors internalize equilibrium structure but display belief heterogeneity, weakening coordination and predictability. Our findings show that AI architecture is a first-order determinant of financial stability.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 6 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3224Details
- Abstract
- We study how physical climate risk shapes bank lending activity and credit quality by combining high-resolution Copernicus flood geospatial maps with loan-level AnaCredit data. We exploit four major European floods (2021–2024) in a spatial regression discontinuity design comparing firms located just inside versus just outside flood boundaries (within 300–500 meters). We find that immediately after floods there is an increase by about 3.5 to 5% in lending, driven by liquidity demand, followed by a contraction of similar magnitude in the subsequent quarter. Interest rates follow a similar pattern, while default rates rise persistently by around 0.7 percentage points. Exploiting multiple lending relationships and firm–time fixed effects, we show that demand factors dominate: banks with greater exposure to affected firms do not systematically tighten credit supply. Nonetheless, relationship banks extend roughly 10 percentage points more credit to affected firms while imposing tighter collateral requirements, consistent with risk-sharing rather than unconditional support. Sectoral composition and pre-existing firm risk are the primary axes of heterogeneity in the immediate response. The findings shed light on how physical climate shocks propagate through credit markets and inform financial stability analysis.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 5 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3223Details
- Abstract
- Using who-to-whom data for the last quarter of 2024, I build networks of financial interconnections in the euro area countries. After representing them in chord diagrams, I consider centrality metrics and find that banks dominate, with four exceptions: Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta. In these countries, other financial institutions and investment funds are at the core, with limited links to domestic sectors and strong ones with the rest of the world. A comparison across countries reveals substantial homogeneity between networks in the sixteen euro area countries and large differences with Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta. For each country, two communities are identified, one focused on the real economy and including banks, and the second comprising other financial intermediaries and the rest of the world. The consistent mapping of sectoral linkages and the accompanying descriptive analysis can be useful for policymakers and may also serve as platform for further analytical work.
- JEL Code
- D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G51 : Financial Economics
- 5 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3222Details
- Abstract
- Investment in cybersecurity in an interconnected banking system has public-good proper- ties: positive externalities can generate systemic underinvestment. Using confidential supervi- sory data from the European Central Bank, we first identify “laggard” European banks that underinvest relative to their cyber-risk profiles, and then examine how supervisory scrutiny af- fects their incentives to invest. We exploit the 2024 ECB Cyber Resilience Stress Test (CyRST) as a quasi-natural experiment. In a difference-in-differences design, we find that following the CyRST announcement, laggard banks increased cybersecurity investment by about 80% rel- ative to their peers. The response is stronger among laggards subject to high-intensity su- pervisory oversight, consistent with scrutiny exerting a disciplining effect. Overall, the results suggest that targeted supervisory scrutiny may help mitigate underinvestment incentives and strengthen banks’ operational risk management.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
L86 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Information and Internet Services, Computer Software
K23 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
- 5 May 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 4 May 2026
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related
- 4 May 2026
- FEEDBACK ON THE INPUT PROVIDED BY THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AS PART OF ITS RESOLUTION ON THE ECB’S ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Related
- 4 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3221Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides novel evidence on how income inequality shapes the heterogeneity of US monetary policy spillovers to GDP across foreign economies. Using state-dependent local projections and exploiting variation in disposable income inequality across 87 countries over 1966-2020, we show that household heterogeneity influences how foreign GDP responds to a US monetary tightening. GDP contracts up to one and a half times more when inequality is above average. However, while higher inequality amplifies negative spillovers in advanced economies, it mitigates them in emerging markets. To rationalise this finding, we use a three-country open economy Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model, which suggests this divergence is driven by differences in participation in international financial markets. Households in emerging markets face greater barriers to international investment, limiting their ability to re-balance portfolios towards higher-return foreign bonds after the shock.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 4 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 67 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 23 March and 1 April 2026, there had been good business momentum in the first quarter, with few signs as yet of demand reacting to the latest war in the Middle East. The war was, however, already pushing some costs and prices higher, particularly for fuel, logistics, chemicals, plastics, paper and packaging. Concerns centred on the impact that the conflict was having on consumer confidence and the risk that a protracted conflict could induce global supply chain disruption due to shortages of oil and oil-based products, pushing prices higher and dampening activity later in the year.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 4 May 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 4 May 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
Related- 4 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
Räntor
| Inlåningsfacilitet | 2,00 % |
| Huvudsakliga refinansieringstransaktioner (fast ränta) | 2,15 % |
| Utlåningsfacilitet | 2,40 % |
Inflationstakt
Mer om inflationVäxelkurser
| USD | US dollar | 1.1770 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 184.07 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86410 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9157 |
Finansiell stabilitet
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Vad gör Europeiska centralbanken?