Non disponibile in italiano
Filippo Vergara Caffarelli
- 13 November 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 379Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at how Brexit has affected trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the United Kingdom and the EU. In 2020 the United Kingdom and the EU signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) , establishing the post-Brexit relationship and, in particular, a tariff-free area for goods produced in either of the two economies. However, non-tariff barriers to the trading of goods and services have emerged. Moreover, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU has affected its attractiveness as an investment target. We analyse recent developments in UK imports and exports with the EU and the rest of the world, in both goods and services, including financial services and tourism. Our estimates suggest that, after the Brexit transition period, UK exports to the EU contracted by almost 40%, due to the emergence of non-tariff barriers with the EU, and the fact that no significant UK trade flows were redirected to other partners. Finally, the analysis of product-level data on German, French, Italian and Spanish exports to the United Kingdom has confirmed the significant negative impact of Brexit, especially for goods highly exposed or highly sensitive to increases in trade costs. The FDI analysis begins with a conjunctural assessment that includes recent trends in EU-UK FDI at a broad level (including sectoral and geographical details), a breakdown of foreign affiliates and an investigation of new FDI projects and jobs in the United Kingdom. The analysis continues with developments in the UK financial sector in terms of the real economy, FDI flows, banks, insurance companies and pension funds, and the evolving status of the United Kingdom as a leading global financial centre. Finally, our analysis also provides an econometric investigation into the potential impact of Brexit on EU-UK FDI, using a gravity model approach. […]
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
- 27 March 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 311Details
- Abstract
- Over the past decade, geopolitical developments – and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world – have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU’s economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU’s OSA policy agenda which extends to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB’s monetary policy and other policies.
- JEL Code
- F0 : International Economics→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
L5 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 14 October 2020
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 249Details
- Abstract
- This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. The studies were carried out between 2017 and the initial months of 2019 and have been independently published by the authors. The aim of this Occasional Paper is to present the studies in an organic manner, highlighting common features and results.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F22 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Migration