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13th ECB Conference on Forecasting Techniques

Artificial intelligence in the analysis of economic narratives, forecasting, and risk assessment


23 and 24 March 2026, Frankfurt am Main

This biennial conference provides a forum for new theoretical and applied work on forecasting with an aim to put new insights into practice. Under the title “Artificial intelligence in economic narratives, forecasting and risk assessments”, the forthcoming edition focuses on the use of AI algorithms for economic analysis, exploring how these methods are transforming the way economists understand and interpret economic phenomena. 

As artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques rapidly evolve, they offer unprecedented opportunities to analyse complex economic relationships, detect patterns in high-dimensional data, and uncover structural dynamics that traditional methods may overlook. The conference aims to address both the potential and the challenges of AI-driven economic analysis in an environment characterized by high economic, financial, and political risks. One session of the conference is co-organized with the Financial Transactions "Big Data" Global Research Network (FTGRN).

The conference will be held onsite, and there will be a live stream for passive participation online.  

Programme

* indicates the presenter

Monday, 23 March 2026
8:30

Registration and coffee

9:00

Welcome remarks

João Sousa (European Central Bank)  


SESSION 1
The use of Large Language Models in Economics

Session chair: Joan Paredes (Národná Banka Slovenska)

9:15

Keynote speech

Barbara Rossi (European University Institute)

10:15

Coffee break

10:45

From Text to Quantified Insights: A Large-Scale LLM Analysis of Central Bank Communication 

Ole Gregarek* (International Monetary Fund) 
with Thiago Christiano Silva, Kei Moriya, and Romain Michel Veyrune (all International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Leif Anders Thorsrud (BI Norwegian Business School)

11:30

LLM Survey Framework: Coverage, Reasoning, Dynamics, Identification 

Jin Xi* (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
with Jin Cynthia Wu and Shihan Xie (all University of Illinois)

Discussant: Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Deutsche Bundesbank)

12:15

FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling 

Sophia Kazinnik* (Stanford University)
with Tara Sinclair (George Washington University)

Discussant: Fédéric Holm-Hadulla (European Central Bank)

13:00

Buffet lunch

 13:30-14:30

POSTER SESSION 1

  • Using Transformers and Reinforcement Learning to Narrate the Business Cycle
    Leif Anders Thorsrud* (BI Norwegian Business School)
    with Vegard Larsen (BI Norwegian Business School)
  • Panel Machine Learning with Mixed-Frequency Data: Monitoring State-Level Fiscal Variables
    Dalibor Stevanovic* (Université du Québec à Montréal) 
    with Philippe Goulet Coulombe (Université du Québec à Montréal) and Massimiliano Marcellino, (Bocconi University)

  • Measuring Economic Outlook in the News
    Franziska Eckert* (Schweizerische Nationalbank)
    with Elliot Beck (Schweizerische Nationalbank), Linus Kühne (ETH Zurich), Helge Liebert and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch (both Schweizerische Nationalbank)

  • Mixing it up: Inflation at Risk 
    Maximilian Schröder* (European Central Bank)
  • Misspecification-Robust Shrinkage and Selection for VAR Forecasts and IRFs
    Oriol González-Casasús* (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
    with Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
  • Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Risk: A Machine Learning Approach
    Alvaro Ortiz* (BBVA Research)
    with Tomasa Rodrigo and Pablo Saborido (all BBVA Research)
  • Predicting Oil Prices with LLMs: Tapping into OPEC and IEA Reports
    Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon* (European Central Bank)
    with Gianluigi Lopardo, Ana-Simona Manu and Ine van Robays (all European Central Bank)
  • Quantifying Economic Narratives: The Transmission of FOMC Communication to Household Expectations via the Media
    Johannes Zahner* (Goethe University)
    with Eleftherios Bethmage (Goethe University)

SESSION 2
Economic Narratives

Session chair: Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch (Schweizerische Nationalbank)

14:30

Adventures in Demand Analysis Using AI

Martin Spindler* (University of Hamburg)
with Philipp Bach (University of Hamburg), Victor Chernozhukov (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Sven Klaassen, Jan Teichert-Kluge (all University of Hamburg) and Suhas Vijaykumar (Institute of Technology)

Discussant: Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank) 

15:15

Generative Economic Modeling

Fabio Stohler* (University of Bonn)
with Hanno Kase (European Central Bank) and Matthias Rottner (Bank for International Settlements)

Discussant: Michael Reiter (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

16:00

Principled Identification of Structural Dynamic Models

Peter Reinhard Hansen* (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
with Neville Francis (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) and Chen Tong (Xiamen University)

Discussant: Oriol González-Casasús (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

16:45

Coffee break

SESSION 3
Leveraging Big Data for Economic Analysis

Session chair: Alvaro Ortiz (Financial Transactions "Big Data" Global Research Network (FTGRN))

17:15

The Short Lags of Monetary Policy

Afonso Soto de Moura* (European Central Bank)
with Gergely Buda (Barcelona School of Economics), Vasco M. Carvalho (University of Cambridge), Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute), João B. Duarte (Nova School of Business and Economics), Stephen Hansen (University College London), Álvaro Ortiz (BBVA Research), Tomasa Rodrigo (BBVA Research), José V. Rodríguez Mora (CUNEF Universidad, University of Edinburgh), Guilherme Alves da Silva (Nova School of Business and Economics)

Discussant: Leonardo Melosi (European University Institute) 

18:00

Disaggregated Economic Accounts

Asger L. Andersen* (University of Copenhagen)
with Kilian Huber (University of Chicago), Niels Johannesen (University of Oxford), Ludwig Straub (Harvard University), Emil Toft Vestergard (Danmarks Nationalbank),

Discussant: Chiara Osbat (Bank for International Settlements)

18:45

End of first conference day

19:00

Dinner – by invitation only

Tuesday, 24 March 2026
8:30

Registration and coffee


SESSION 4
Forecasting with Machine Learning

Session chair: Juri Marcucci (Banca d’Italia)

9:15

Keynote speech

Stephen Hansen (University College London)

10:15

Coffee break

10:45

Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting

Pablo Guerron* (Boston College)
with Abdul Fatir Ansari, Oleksandr Shchur (all Amazon Web Services), Jaris Küken (Amazon Web Services; University of Freiburg), Andreas Auer (Amazon Web Services), Johannes Kepler (University Linz), Boran Han, Pedro Mercado, Syama Sundar Rangapuram, Huibin Shen, Lorenzo Stella, Xiyuan Zhang, Mononito Goswami, Shubham Kapoor, Danielle C. Maddix, Tony Hu, Junming Yin, Nick Erickson, Prateek Mutalik Desai (all Amazon Web Services), Hao Wang (Amazon Web Services; Rutgers University), Huzefa Rangwala, George Karypis, Yuyang Wang, Michael Bohlke-Schneider (all Amazon Web Services)

Discussant: Francesco Ravazzolo (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano)

11:30

Debt-at-Risk

Faizaan Kisat* (International Monetary Fund)
with Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund), Domenico Giannone (Johns Hopkins University), Raphael Lam, and Hongchi Li (all International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Maximilian Schröder (European Central Bank)

12:15

Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts

Karin Klieber* (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
with Philippe Goulet Coulombe (Université du Québec à Montréal)

Discussant: Galina Potjagailo (Bank of England)

13:00

Buffet lunch

13:30-14:30

POSTER SESSION 2 

  • Using Social Interaction to Track Euro Area Economic Conditions
    Luca Onorante* (Joint Research Centre, European Commission)
    with Konstantin Boss (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona) and Luigi Longo (Joint Research Centre, European Commission)
  • Scenario Analysis with Multivariate Bayesian Machine Learning Models
    Michael Pfarrhofer* (Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    with Anna Stelzer (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
  • Economic Narratives and Realities of Geopolitical Risk
    Vivien Lewis* (Deutsche Bundesbank)
    with Sarah Arndt (European Central Bank), Yevheniia Bondarenko and Matthias Rottner (both Deutsche Bundesbank)
  • Fiscal Narratives and Inflation
    Sarah Arndt* (European Central Bank)
    with Farah Tohme (Goethe University)
  • The Predictive Power of Fedspeak
    Andrej Sokol* (Bloomberg)
    with Nick Hallmark (Bloomberg)
  • Effectiveness of a Soft LTV Limit
    Helene Bruffaerts* (Ghent University)
    with Rudi Vander Vennet (Ghent University)

SESSION 5
Time-Variation and State Dependence

Session chair: Malte Knüppel (Deutsche Bundesbank)

14:30

Self-Driving Neural Networks for Yield Curve Modelling

Sicco Kooiker* (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
with Janneke von Brummelen, Julia Schaumburg, and Marcin Zamojski (all Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Discussant: Sarah Mouabbi (Banque de France)

15:15

An Extended Score-Driven Dynamic Factor Model: Recovering Composite Indicators from the Pandemic

Mariia Artemova* (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
with Dick van Dijk and Evgenii Vladimirov (all Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Discussant: Dalibor Stevanovic (Université du Québec à Montréal)

16:00

Learning from Crises: A New Class of Time-Varying Parameter VARs with Observable Adaptation

Nicolas Hardy* (Universidad Diego Portales)
with Dimitris Korobilis (Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow)

Discussant: Claudia Foroni (European Central Bank)

16:45

Concluding remarks

Philip R. Lane (European Central Bank)

17:00

End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.

General information

Venue

European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

Language

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Scientific committee

Marta Banbura, Nicolo Battistini, Agostino Consolo, Michele Lenza , Friderike Kuik, Elmar Mertens, Gerhard Rünstler, Lorena Saiz (all ECB) and Alvaro Ortiz (Financial Transactions "Big Data" Global Research Network)

Organising committee

Marta Banbura, European Central Bank
Niccolò Battistini, European Central Bank
Agostino Consolo, European Central Bank
Friderike Kuik, European Central Bank
Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
Elmar Mertens, European Central Bank
Alvaro Ortiz, Financial Transactions "Big Data" Global Research Network (FTGRN)
Gerhard Rünstler, European Central Bank
Lorena Saiz, European Central Bank

Contacts

Iris Bettenhäuser
Stefanie Jetten
Tel.: +49 (0) 69 1344 8782
conf-forecasting@ecb.europa.eu

Have a look at the last edition of the conference

12th ECB Conference on Forecasting Techniques